Labels

Saturday, November 21, 2015

Ten principles of value investing

Rather than dwelling on definitions of Value Investing, here are 10 principles that I follow, inspired by legendary investors (Graham, Buffett, Klarman etc.).

 
 
 
1. Never invest without a Margin of Safety. Investing involves a lot of uncertainty. To account for human mistakes, complexity, and bad luck, securities should always be purchased at prices sufficiently below intrinsic value (at least 30% discount compared to a conservative company valuation; see here for fundamental valuation techniques). Such a Margin of Safety is best achieved by buying securities that are "Safe and Cheap".

2. Do your own homework. Unfortunately, successful investing requires a lot of homework, including research and analysis. You can look at what other investors you respect do as a source of inspiration – copying is okay in investing – but you'll only have the confidence required to take sound decisions (and stick to them) if you do your own analysis. If you don't want to invest the time and effort, best would be to delegate your investments to professional managers.

3. Be contrarian. The most lucrative investing opportunities can often be found in out of favour, boring, odd, small, disappointing stocks (for instance, stocks trading at multi-year lows). If everybody loves a stock, it is likely to be quite expensive.

4. Be flexible. To capture value opportunities, you need to be flexible, agile and unconstrained. This is the great advantage of the small private investor over large institutions – use it. The only relevant constraint should be: avoid what you don't understand, put it in the "too hard" pile.

5. Be patient. Good things happen to cheap stocks – but the timing is unpredictable. Patience is critical to deal with the (inevitable) curse of being too early, and to be able to "wait for the fat pitch". I like to keep a substantial amount of cash as dry powder to be used when extraordinary opportunities arise (they often do eventually).

6. Buy and sell. This is possibly somewhat controversial (many value investors adopt a buy-and-hold approach) and could be perceived as contradictory to the "Be patient" principle. However, whilst I believe that you should always invest with a long-term perspective in mind, I also like to take advantage of market movements to buy more of stocks that have sold off, and trim positions that have appreciated.

7. Make volatility your friend. Too many investors are afraid of stock price volatility and assimilate volatility to risk. From my perspective, risk is the permanent loss of capital, not a number nor a Greek symbol. Volatility creates opportunities and as such is the value investor's friend.

8. Beware of debt. A rock solid balance sheet takes part of the financial risk of investing away. As a rule of thumb, I try to avoid non-financial companies with a debt to equity ratio above 1.

9. Don't over-diversify. You want to focus on your best ideas rather than overly diversify your portfolio. Buffett is right again: "Diversification is protection against ignorance".

10. Be disciplined. Investing is a highly emotional activity. Maintaining a disciplined approach (for example, by using a checklist) helps avoiding many traps like spending too much time on macro noise, getting seduced by the latest fads, falling in love with a stock, and panicking.
 
 

No comments:

Post a Comment